Shanghai Airport (600009): Capacity release in line with expectations is expected to become a tax-free catalyst

Shanghai Airport (600009): Capacity release in line with expectations is expected to become a tax-free catalyst

Shanghai Airport (600009): Capacity release in line with expectations is expected to become a tax-free catalyst

Event: Shanghai Airport announced its 2019 half-year report. (1) Business: The overall growth rate of the business slowed.

560,000 times, an increase of 1 every year.

92%.

Among them, the number of domestic aircraft takeoffs and landings was 13.

360,000 times, an increase of 3 every year.

24%; international and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan aircraft takeoffs and landings were 11.

99 million times, an increase of 0 a year.

57%.

② A passenger explosion of 3,821 was achieved semi-annually.

970,000 person-times, an increase of 4 per year.

16%.

Among them, the explosion of international, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan passengers was 1940.

780,000 person-times, an increase of 4 per year.

05%, accounting for 50.

78%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.

05 tablets

(2) In terms of finance: deducting non-net profit growth rate exceeding 30% ① income side, the company achieved operating income of 54 in the first half of the year.

55 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

11%, revenue maintained a medium and high-speed growth.

Of which non-aviation income is 34.

3.1 billion, accounting for 62.

9%, commercial retail income 27.

7.4 billion, an increase of 46% in ten years.

② On the cost side, the company’s half-year total operating cost is 24.

35 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.

25%.

Of which labor cost is 9.

3.7 billion, an increase of 10 years.

34%, operating and maintenance costs11.

9.1 billion, an 无锡夜网 increase of 15 a year.

26%.

Overall, the cost growth rate is in line with expectations, and the commissioning of the new satellite hall in the second half of the year is expected to increase depreciation costs.

09 billion, cost pressure is under control.

③ On the profit side, the company’s semi-annual net profit is deducted from non-attributed mothers26.

50 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.

09%.

It is obvious that the company’s semi-annual investment income is 5.

50 ppm, an increase of 34 in ten years.
06%, the first is the change in civil aviation Kaia’s accounting methods led to zero investment income.
500 million, advertising investment income increased by 34% to 2.

2.4 billion, Pudong aviation oil investment income growth increased by 3% to 2.

70 billion.

Opinions: (1) The performance is in line with expectations, and tax exemption contributed the main incremental income. There was no room for relaxation of airport control policies in the first half of the year, and the explosion of passengers at Shanghai Airport maintained a low growth rate.

However, under the background of rapid business volume growth, the non-net profit of Shanghai Airport still maintained a growth rate of more than 30%, and the high growth in tax-free income was the main driver of performance growth.

According to our calculations, in the first half of the year, Shanghai Airport’s tax-free income grew at a rate of 50%, and the increase in the per-capita tax deduction rate and the T2 terminal deduction rate contributed mainly to tax-free increments.

(2) The energy released, that is, the per capita tax allowance, and there is a lot of space for the airport’s aviation business to adopt the cost recovery principle for pricing, public welfare property can be replaced, and the absolute value and flexibility of the profit are small.

At the same time, the proportion of tax-free income from Shanghai Airport has continued to increase, and its influence on performance has been enlarged year by year. The airport’s consumption attributes have become more prominent.

Although the increase in the deduction rate is only a one-time event, the special price-raising ability of the consumer attributes will continue to increase the ROE level of Shanghai Airport. It is estimated that the upward movement of the hub is the embodiment of the airport consumer attributes.

In the short term, Shanghai Airport’s throughput will be released in the second half of the year. The tax-free area will double and supply will drive demand. In the past, high-end consumer demand (such as luxury demand), which was limited by production capacity, is expected to usher in opportunities; see Baiyun Airport Terminal T2The current high tax exemption status after production, Shanghai Airport, which has the world’s largest satellite hall, is exempt from tax per capita.

Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 120.

12, 140.

17,151.

7.4 billion, with a net profit of 50.

12, 58.

01, 67.

100,000 yuan, corresponding to PE of 33.

64 times, 29.

07 times, 25.

13 times.

Continue to give “Recommended” rating.

Risk reminders: aviation accidents, major policy changes, the impact of duty-free shops in the city, investment income has dropped significantly, and operating costs have risen significantly

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