Depth-Company-Guizhou Moutai (600519): Strong real demand will continue to be strongly recommended in the next two years

Depth-Company-Guizhou Moutai (600519): Strong real demand will continue to be strongly recommended in the next two years

Depth * Company * Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Strong real demand will continue to be highly recommended in the next two years

Guizhou Moutai announced a quarterly report in 1991.

In the first quarter of 19, revenue was 216.

400 million, an increase of 23 previously.

9%, net profit 112.

200 million, an increase of 31 a year.

9%, budget benefit 8.

93 yuan.

The company’s period-end advance payment 113.

800 million, down 21.

9 billion.

The revenue and net profit were slightly higher than the performance forecast, and the advance receipt exceeded expectations.

The main points of support levels: 19Q19 Moutai’s revenue was 19.5 billion, and it will increase by 23 in the future.

7%.

(1) Demand maintained a strong growth momentum.

According to the release plan announced before the Moutai Festival, the amount of Moutai liquor released during the 19th Spring Festival gradually increased.

According to our grassroots research, the bundling price of 1Q19 continued to rise, reaching 1800-1900 yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 10%, and the latest has exceeded 1900 yuan.

(2) The ratio of direct sales in the first quarter of 19 was from 8.
.

7% dropped to 5.

3%, but the proportion of high value-added 合肥夜网 products should be higher than the same period last year, such as boutique wine, zodiac wine, etc., so we judge that the average sales price of Moutai wine increased slightly.

(3) The company received advance accounts 113 in the first quarter of 19th.

800 million, down 21.

900 million, the release of the cistern may contribute part of the income increase.

The first quarter of 19 series wine revenue 21.

300 million, an increase of 26 previously.

3%.

We judge that the series of wines will enter the market consolidation stage in 2019. In 1Q19, 494 dealers of sauce and liquor series will be reduced, and the expense growth rate will be replaced, and the company’s overall sales expense ratio will decrease by 1.

4pct.

Internal rectification is advancing, and the performance in 19-20 is expected to continue to exceed expectations.

The number of Moutai liquor dealers decreased by 437 in 2018, and the internal rectification will continue to progress in 2019. It is expected that traditional dealers will be further replaced, and new channels and non-standard proportions will rise significantly in the next few quarters, thereby driving the average price to continue to rise.

Recently, the company’s bidding platform in Guizhou has been open to the whole country and the Guizhou Super Business. The first batch of 600 tons of Moutai will be put on the market, and similar actions are expected to follow.

Estimated EPS 35 in 19-20.

20, 42.

48 yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.

6%, 20.

7%.

Moutai demand maintained a strong growth trend, internal rectification progressed, and the performance may continue to exceed expectations, maintaining a BUY rating.

Inventories of major risk channels facing ratings exceeded expectations.

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