Longji shares (601012): Single crystal leader continues to grow at a market value of over 100 billion yuan to start a new journey

Longji shares (601012): Single crystal leader continues to grow at a market value of over 100 billion yuan to start a new journey

Longji shares (601012): Single crystal leader continues to grow at a market value of over 100 billion yuan to start a new journey
The event company released a semi-annual report, which reported that it could achieve operating income of 141.110,000 yuan, an increase of 41 in ten years.09%; realized net profit attributable to mother 20.100,000 yuan, an increase of 53 in ten years.76%; net profit attributable to non-attributed mothers was 19.960,000 yuan, an increase of 59 in ten years.15%; operating net cash flow 24.27 ppm, a 107-year increase.63%; comprehensive gross profit margin 26.22%, an increase of 3 per year.6 pct.The high performance growth was due to the substantial increase in the sales of silicon wafers and components and the reduction in production costs.In essence, the company’s market value exceeded 100 billion on August 28. The brief evaluation gradually realized high growth, and the price remained strong. Thanks to the expansion of production capacity and strong demand in overseas markets, the company’s silicon wafer and module product prices were firm in the first half of the year, which can replace high volume growth.In the first half of the year, the company achieved approximately 21 wafer exports.4.8 billion tablets, an increase of 183% in ten years, for personal use7.9.5 billion pieces; export of components3.193GW, a year-on-year increase of 21%, 265MW for own use.In the first half of the year, the company’s silicon wafer price remained at 3.05-3.Between 15 yuan / piece, the fluctuation is small.Judging from the tax-included price, the price from January to February was 3.05 yuan / piece, 3 in March.15 yuan / piece, 3 from April to June.07 yuan / piece.At present, the supply of single crystal silicon wafers has remained tight, and single crystal silicon wafer manufacturers still have a strong trend in the industrial chain. The situation of strong silicon wafer prices can be maintained in the short term.And the silicon material end due 天津夜网 to the new expansion of production to release energy, the price has suffered a certain impact. Non-silicon costs continue to fall rapidly, driving continuous growth in gross profit margins. Companies reduce costs through equipment transformation, process improvement, and management improvements. Non-silicon costs for axial silicon wafers are reported to decrease by 31 each year.75%, which pushed the overall gross profit margin to 26.22%, an annual increase of 3.6 pct.It is expected that non-silicon costs will continue to decline in the future, and gross profit margins will continue to increase. Rapid expansion of production capacity and continued high growth can be expected The company is currently in a period of rapid expansion of production capacity.At the end of 2018, the company’s silicon rod wafer / battery / module 合肥夜网 production capacity was approximately 28/4/8.8GW, 2019/2020/2021 three-year capacity planning is 36/50 / 65GW for silicon wafers, 10/15 / 20GW for batteries, 16/25 / 30GW for modules, all of which are expected to double in two years, with a CAGR of about 40%.According to the overall construction progress, silicon wafer capacity is expected to reach 65GW by the end of 2020, one year earlier than originally planned.At present, the first phase of the Chuxiong 10GW silicon wafer project and the Luzhou 5GW module project have been completed, and the second phase of Yunnan’s silicon rod project has accelerated.At the same time, the report preliminary predicted Yinchuan’s 15GW single crystal silicon rod and wafer projects, Yinchuan 3GW battery project, Taizhou 5GW module project, and Xianyang 5GW module project, which will continue to see high growth in the future. Long-term purchase contracts have been locked for short periods of time. The future supply of raw materials and auxiliary materials is guaranteed. The company frequently maintains long-term single-purchase contracts with upstream suppliers to ensure the supply of replacement materials.Since the first half of the year, the company has been in photovoltaic glass with Follett and Rainbow New Energy, replenishing materials with Tongwei and Daquan, and a number of long-term purchase contracts on aluminum foil with Aikang Technology and Changtai Aluminum to ensure key raw materials.The future supply of auxiliary materials is guaranteed. Pushing 166 large silicon wafers to promote the common development of the industry In the first half of the year, the company launched the M6 large silicon wafers with a size of 166 mm × 166 mm, which can increase the profit of the industrial chain.13 yuan / W, which is conducive to the common development of the entire industry chain, has been well received by the industry.In the construction of power stations, the use of large silicon high-power components can reduce the cost of brackets, combiner boxes, cables, etc., thereby diluting the cost of the single watt of the system and bringing a premium to the components. At the manufacturing cost side, the large silicon wafer itself can thin the silicon wafer.The non-silicon cost of battery and module production interruption directly increases the profit of each conversion.With 158.The ratio of 75 square single crystals is 158 in total.The excess profit of the 75-square monocrystalline module is 4 cents, the excess profit of the M6 is 13 cents, and the size of the M6 space.At the current price level, 158.The excess profit of the 75-square single crystal basically stays on the silicon wafer, and most of the excess profit of the M6 flows to the component separation.The driving force behind the promotion of M6 silicon wafers is to increase the conversion profits of the industrial chain.In terms of pricing, we believe that M6 pricing keeps up with M2 to continue to maintain a competitive advantage, so that the diluted cost of each exchange is precipitated as domestic profits, thereby improving the gross profit margin in all aspects.Compared with the size of 210 square single crystal products, the battery and module subdivision is more compatible with 166 products. The latest equipment can meet the production requirements of 166, which is a better choice for the industry to win. Convertible bonds are about to be redeemed, and the balance of assets and liabilities continues to improve. At the end of the reporting period, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 56.54%, a decrease of 1 from the end of 2018.04 pct, capital structure continued to be optimized.In fact, the company’s convertible bonds have recently reached compulsory redemption conditions, and the company has initiated compulsory redemption.The product was launched on September 4 and was discontinued on the market, and the resale was implemented on September 6.After the compulsory redemption, the company’s assets and debt ratio will be further reduced, providing more room for the company’s business development. Earnings forecast predicts that the company’s operating income for 19-21 will be US $ 319/430/56 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent will be 49.98/65.54/84.500,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 1.38/1.81/2.33 yuan, the corresponding PE is 20.2/15.4/12.0 times, give “Buy” rating. Risk warnings 1) PV market demand falls short of expectations; 2) Product prices fall more than expected; 3) Non-silicon costs fall less than expected.

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