Category: 洗浴

New crown crisis may become a catalyst for the Great Depression

NewcrowncrisismaybecomeacatalystfortheGreatDepression Openingslogan:TheepidemicofNewCoronaryPneumoniacontinuestospreadandpanicsweepstheglobalmarket.Severalmajorstockmarketsaroundtheworldtriggeredafusemechanismtosuspendtrading,anddozensofstockmarketsentereda”technicalbearmarket.”Inessence,somecountrieshaveintroducedbailoutmeasures,includingtemporarilyprohibitingshort-sellingofstocksandplacingliquidity.Istheglobaleconomiccrisiscoming?Howdoyouviewtheeconomicbudgetsoftheworld’smajoreconomies?Willtheepidemicposesomerealchallenges?Howdoestheglobaleconomyrespondtotheimpactoftheepidemic?Aftertheepidemic,willtheglobalpoliticalandeconomicpatternchange?SaunaNightinvitesscholarsfromChina,theUnitedStates,Japan,theUnitedKingdom,Australiaandmanyothercountriesandregionstorecordtheireconomicobservationsaroundtheeconomicintegrationofthedomesticpublic’sattention.Todaywelaunchthefifthissueof”ShengLiugang,WangPengfei:TheNewCrownCrisisortheCatalystfortheGreatDepressionintheUnitedStates.”ThefollowingaretheglobaleconomicobservationsofShengLiugang,associateprofessoroftheEconomicsDepartmentoftheChineseUniversityofHongKongandWangPengfei,associatedeanoftheHSBCBusinessSchoolofPekingUniversity:ShengLiugang:AssociateProfessoroftheEconomicsDepartmentoftheChineseUniversityofHongKong,DeputyDirectoroftheEconomicCenteroftheHongKongAsia-PacificInstitute,andDirectorofTradeandDevelopmentProgram.WangPengfei:AssociateDeanofHSBCBusinessSchool,PekingUniversity,ProfessorEndsOnApril2,thenumberofpatientsdiagnosedwithnewcoronarypneumoniaintheworldhasexceeded900,000,andalmostallcountriesintheworldhavebeenspared.ThenumberofpatientsdiagnosedwithNewCoronaryPneumoniaintheUnitedStateshasexceeded21,makingitthemostdiagnosedcountryintheworld.IthasbecometheepicenteroftheNewCrownepidemicinjustafewweeks.Undertheimpactoftheepidemic,theU.S.stockmarketfell,breakingdownfourtimesintensecondsinMarch,withadeclineofmorethan30%.InresponsetothenewCrownepidemic,theUSgovernmentandtheFederalReservelaunchedanunprecedentedstimulusplan.TheFedhascutinterestratestwicetozerointerestratestwice,andinitiatedunlimitedquantitativeeasing,whiletheUSgovernmentintroducedupto2.A$2trillioneconomicbailoutplan.However,atpresent,therearecurrentlynoeffectivedrugstocontrolthenewcoronavirus.Itstilltakestimetodevelopvaccines.Themoreeffectivemethodofepidemiccontrolisstillthetraditionalhomeisolationmeasures,whichmeansthatthenationwideshutdownandsuspensionofschool,whichislikelytocauseTheeconomyhasfallensharplyandmassunemployment.Iftheepidemiccannotbequicklycontrolled,itsimpactontheUSeconomywillfarexceedtheimpactofthe2008financialcrisis,andtheepidemicwilllikelybecomeacatalystfortheUnitedStatestoreplacesucha1929economicdepression.Thelong-termgrowthoftheUSeconomyisweak.Beforetheoutbreak,althoughtheUSunemploymentratereacheditslowestlevelinmorethan60years,theeconomicgrowthmomentumwasnotstrong.Fromtheperspectiveoftheeconomiccycle,afterthe2008financialcrisis,theUSeconomyrecoveredveryslowly,andtheaverageannualrealGDPgrowthintheUnitedStatesbetween2009and2019wasonly2.16%,farbelowtheaverageannualgrowthratefrom1994to20063.82%.AlthoughtheFedmaintainedalowinterestrateandquantitativeeasingforalongtimeafterthecrisis,thegrowthrateoftheUnitedStatesremaineddepressedforalongtime.Themostimportantreasonisthatafterthecrisis,thelaborproductivityoftheUnitedStatesandthetotalfactorshavenotimprovedsignificantly,andthefoundationoftheeconomicboomisnotstrong.Totalfactorforecastisthesourceoftheexpectedsustainedeconomicgrowth.AccordingtocalculationsbytheUSFederalReserveBankofSanFrancisco,theaverageannualforecastofthetotalfactoroftheUnitedStatesforthetwelveyearsbeforethecrisisis1.Underthebenchmarkof44%,theannualaveragevariableforecastoftheUSannualtotalfactorafterthecrisisisonly0.65%,only44%ofthepreviouseconomiccycle.MainlybecauseMoore’sLawintheITindustryhasfailedinthepastdecadewithoutsignificantrevolutionarytechnologicalbreakthroughs.AccordingtoresearchbyNicolasBloom,aprofessorofeconomicsatStanfordUniversity,andhiscollaborators,newscientificandtechnologicalbreakthroughsarebecomingmoreandmoredifficulttotranslateintoadvancesinscienceandtechnology.In2014,scientificresearchershavetopaytheequivalentof18timestheeffortin1971tomaintainMoore’sLaw.Therefore,theproductionefficiencyofscientificresearchdepartmentsshowsatrendingdecline,whichisalsoanimportantreasonforthedeclinecausedbythedecompositionoftotalfactors.Wehavenoreasontothinkthatthismomentwillchangeafterthenewcrowncrisis.Therefore,evenifthenewcrowncrisispasses,thereboundoftheUSeconomywillbeveryweak.ThenewcrownepidemichitstheUSeconomyandemploymentservicesaccountedformorethan80%oftheUSGDP,andtheepidemichasthegreatestimpactonindustriesandjobsthatrequirehumancontactavoid.Theepidemichasaparticularlysevereimpactonindustriesthataredenselypopulated,suchastransportation,hotels,restaurants,andentertainmentindustries.AccordingtotheAmericanAviationIndustry(A4A)statistics,onMarch26,thenumberofaircraftflightscancelledbytheUnitedStateswasashighas11,279.Accordingtothenextmonth,only82flightswerecancelledonFebruary26.Onthesameday,thecompletionfactoroftheUSaviationindustrydroppedsharplyfromnearly100%beforetheepidemicto58.2%.DuringtheweekofMarch17-23,thehoteloccupancyrateintheUnitedStatesplummetedby56.4%,andtherevenuefromeachhotelroomdecreasedbyabout70%.Therestaurantindustryhasbeenhithardestbythenewcrownepidemic.AccordingtoOpentabledata,restaurantsinmostregionshaveclosedoronlytakeout.Therestaurantoccupancyratehasdroppedtozerointhelastweek.Withmovietheaters,gymnasiums,andthemeparkssuspendedfromopening,andpressingthepausebuttonforvarioussportsevents,theentertainmentindustryisalsobleak.AstheepidemicintheUnitedStatesbecomesmoreandmoreserious,moreandmorepeoplehavetostayathome,andthenumberofunemployedwillriserapidly.DatafromtheUSDepartmentofLaborshowthatintheweekendingMarch21,thenumberofpeopleapplyingforunemploymentbenefitsintheUnitedStateshassoaredto3.28million,thehighestvaluesincetheUSDepartmentofLaborbegantrackingthisdatain1967.TheFederalReserveBankofSt.LouisestimatesthattheunemploymentrateintheUnitedStatesinthesecondquartermaybeashighas32%.AccordingtotheUnitedStates,theemployedpopulationisapproximately1.Withapopulationof64.5billion,theunemployedpopulationmayreach53millionintheshortterm.AproblemcloselylinkedtounemploymentisthegrowingincomeinequalityintheUnitedStates.AccordingtothestatisticsoftheWorldInequalityDatabase,the1%ofthepopulationwiththehighestpre-taxincomeaccountedfor18%ofthetotalpre-taxincomefrom2009.5%roseto20in2014.2%,whilethe50%ofthepopulationwiththelowestpre-taxincomeaccountsfortheproportionoftotalpre-taxincomefrom13.6%droppedto12.6%.In1970,thiswasenoughtoaccountfortheexactoppositeofrevenue.Overthepast50years,thegapbetweentherichandthepoorintheUnitedStateshasincreased,butthesavingsratehasfallenalot.Statista’ssurveydatashowsthatabout45%ofAmericanbanksavingsaccountshavenodeposits,and42%ofstakeholdersindicatethattheiremergencyfundsareonlysufficientforthreemonths.TheimpactofthecurrentNewCrownCrisisonlow-incomepeople.Occupationswithahighriskofunemploymentsuchashairdressers,restaurantattendants,andtransportationservicepersonnelarealsooccupationswithreducedincomes,andthesepeopledonothavemuchstorage,soitisdifficulttoresistthecostofresistingtheepidemic.Iflarge-scaleunemploymentcontinuesforalongtime,strikes,violentcrimes,riotsandothersocialproblemswillcontinuetooccuraftertheepidemic.Theepidemichasadevastatingeffectonthecompany’sbalancesheet.Thenewcrownepidemichasadisastrouseffectonthecompany’sbalancesheet.Duetothespreadoftheepidemic,manyfactoriesandshopsmustbeclosedandclosed,withnooperatingincome.AccordingtoestimatesbyBridgewater,theworld’slargesthedgefund,theepidemicwillresultinaUS$4trilliondecreaseinUScorporaterevenue.Butcompaniesstillhavetopaywages,rents,andearnings,sotheircashflowisrapidlydryingup.ThoseSMEsthatrelyheavilyondailyincomestreamsmayfail.Forlargecompanies,iftheepidemiccontinuesforalongperiodoftime,causingsomecompaniestorupturetheircashflowsandexpectfuturerevenuestodecrease,whichmaytriggeracrisisintheUScorporatebondmarket,suchconcernsarenotunnecessary.First,theleverageratioofUSnon-financialenterpriseshasreboundedtothelevelbeforethecrisis.AccordingtothedataoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,thedebtofUSnon-financialenterpriseshasreached75%ofGDP.3%,morethan72inthefourthquarterof2008.5%historicalhigh.Asaresult,theleverageratioincreasedandtheproportionoflow-qualifiedcompaniesintheU.S.corporatebondmarketrose,whichexacerbatedthevulnerabilityofthecorporatebondmarket.Asignificantriseintheratiocanbepolished.ThelatestdatashowsthatBBBgradesandjunkdebtsaccountfor48%and18%ofUScorporatebonds,respectively.Throughthecontinuationofthenewcrownepidemic,alargenumberofcorporatebondsmayalsobedowngraded.Infact,theepidemichascausedsignificantpressureonthesetwotypesofcorporatedebt.WhenthewaveofU.S.stockssell-offhit,themarket’sdistortedsentimentoncreditriskrosesharply,leadingtoasharpdeclineinUScorporatebondprices.ThecreditspreadofBBB’scorporatedebtsoaredto4onMarch23.88%,thespreadofjunkdebtcreditsoaredto8onthesameday.37%,unlessthehighestvaluesincethefinancialcrisis.AlthoughtheFed’sunlimitedquantitativeeasingpolicytemporarilypreventedthetwotypesofdebtspreadsfromcontinuingtorise,thespreadsareverylimitedandstillremainatahighlevel,sothepossibilityofacorporatedebtcrisisstillexists.Finally,energycompanydebtisverylikelytobethetriggerforthecorporatedebtcrisis.Sincethebeginningoftheyear,oilpriceshavefallenfrommorethanUS$60perbarreltoaboutUS$20,andtheplungehasexceeded2/3,whichhascausedgreatpressureonAmericanshaleoilandgascompanies,whichhasalsocausedavalanchesofhigh-yielddebtpricesforenergycompanies.AccordingtothestatisticsofBankofAmericaMerrillLynch,themarketvalueofthehigh-yieldbondsoftheUS$174.5billionenergycompanyhasfallentoUS$142billion,only81%ofthefacevalue.Duetothesuddenslowdownoftheglobaleconomy,energydemandandenergypriceswillcontinuetodecline,andthesoaringenergybondyieldswillalsoincreasethecostofUScompaniestoraisefundsthroughtheissuanceofnewbonds,soenergycompanydebtisinjeopardy.Thenewcrownepidemicseverelyhitstheglobalindustrychain.Thenewcrownepidemiccanbecalledthefirstrealcrisisoftransformation.The2008financialcrisisstartedwiththesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStates.CountriessuchasChinaandIndiadidnothaveacrisisinthemselves;thetradeconflictsthatledtopowercametotheUnitedStatesanditsmaintradingpartnersincludeChina,Canada,MexicoandtheEuropeanUnion.Somecountrieshavemaintainedtradegrowth.ThenewcoronavirusismorecontagiousthantheSpanishfluof1918andhasinfectedmostcountriesontheplanet.Inordertocutoffforeignimports,countriesmustsuspendmostinternationalroutes,andadoptextrememeasuresofquarantinefor14daysorrejectionofnon-citizens.Atthesametime,inordertorespondtothelocalepidemicsituation,socialisolationmethodssuchasworkstoppagesandschoolclosuresmustbeadopted.Asaresult,theglobalindustrialchainhasbeencuttovaryingdegrees.TheWorldTradeOrganizationestimatesthattheimpactofthenewcrownepidemiconinternationaltradewillfarexceedtheimpactofthe2008financialcrisis,andthethreatofnegativeglobaleconomicgrowthwillbeinevitable.Theimpactoftheglobalindustrialchain’sdamageontheUSeconomyislongandlong.AlthoughtheforeigndependenceoftheUStradeisnothigh,theUSistheglobalindustrialchainlayman,thecountrywiththemostforeigndirectinvestmentintheworld,andoneofthethreeglobalindustrialchains-NorthAmerica,Europe,andAsia.Moreimportantly,theUnitedStatesisacountrythatistrulyproducingandsellingintoday’sworld.AccordingtocalculationsbyShengLiugangandZhaoHongyaninthe”China-USEconomicandTradeChange”book,in2015,thetotalvalueoftheUnitedStatestoothercountrieswasashighasUS$8.2269trillion,ofwhichonly18ofthemweremerchandiseexports.4%,whilelocalsalesofUS-ownedsubsidiariesaccountedfor34%,almostdoubletheexportofgoods;USservicetradeexportsaccountedfor9%.2%,whilelocalservicesalesofUS-fundedsubsidiariesareashighas34.3%,almostfivetimestheexportofservices.Therefore,itcanbesaidthattheUnitedStatesbasicallyreliesonlocalsalesofmultinationalcompaniesratherthanexportstoserveconsumersaroundtheworld.Atthesametime,thetotalsalesoftheUnitedStatestoothercountriesaremuchhigherthanthetotalsalesofothercountriestotheUnitedStates.ThetotalsalessurplusoftheUnitedStatesisashighas1,465.3billionU.S.dollars,accountingfor8%ofU.S.GDP,whichismuchhigherthantheU.S.merchandisetradedeficitof761.8billionU.S.dollars.ThespreadoftheNewCrownepidemicworldwideisboundtocrackdownonthesalesandprofitsofAmericanmultinationalcompaniesoverseas.SomeApplecompanieshavetoannouncethetemporaryclosureofallretailstoresoutsideofGreaterChina.Moreimportantly,becausetheUSindustrialchainisspreadallovertheworld,eventheUnitedStatescancontroltheepidemicinthesecondquarter,butifothercountriesintheindustrialchaincannotsuccessfullycontroltheepidemic,thentheUSglobalindustrialchainwillbedifficulttorestore.Thenewcrownepidemiccausedhugeuncertainty.Thefinaloutbreakscaleofthenewcrownepidemichashugeuncertaintiesontheeconomicimpactandgovernmentresponse.Economicactivities,especiallyinvestment,researchanddevelopment,andrecruitmentrequirelong-termandsustainedinvestment.Whentheuncertaintyincreases,companiesusuallyrepeatorcanceltheseeconomicactivitiesthathaveanimportantimpactontheeconomyinthemediumandlongterm.Therefore,theincreaseinuncertaintyhasaverylargeinhibitoryeffectoneconomicactivities.Uncertaintyalsodamagesconsumerconfidenceinconsumption,therebycurbingconsumption.FedeconomistLiuZhengandhiscollaboratorsfoundthatincreaseduncertaintywillreducethepurchaseofdurablegoodssuchascarsbyUSresidents.EconomistsusuallyusetheChicagoBoardofTrade’spanicindexVIXtoestimateeconomicuncertainty.OnMarch16,theUSDowJonesindexplungednearly3,000points,thelargestone-daydropsince1987,andthepanicindexjumped25pointsto82.69,surpassingthehighstartingpointof80afterLehman’sbankruptcyin2008.74.AfterWorldWarII,theUnitedStatesexperiencedthreemajoruncertaintiesbefore,whichoccurredinthefirstoilcrisisof1973-1974,thehighinflationcrisisof1981-1982andtheglobalfinancialcrisisof2007-2009.Althoughtheuncertaintyindexitselfusuallydecayesquickly,the2015articlepublishedintheAmericanEconomicReviewfoundthattheuncertaintycausedbythesubstitutionoftheeconomymaylastformorethan5years,andthemagnitudeoftheimpactontheeconomyissimilartothatofmonetarypolicy.Thesizeissimilar.TheremainingUSpolicyspacetostimulateeconomicrecoveryisverylimited.Inresponsetothis100-year-oldnewcrownepidemic,theUSgovernmentlaunchedanunprecedentedfiscalandmonetarystimuluspolicy.InMarch,theFedfirstdirectlyreplacedzerointerestratesthroughtwoemergencyinterestratecuts.Atthesametime,thedepositreserveratioalsoreplacedzero,andexchangedcurrencieswithmultiplecountriestodealwiththedollarshortageintheinternationalmarket.TheFedcloselyfollowedtheintroductionofunlimitedquantitativeeasingpoliciesandexpandedthescopeofassetpurchases.DirectlyprecedingTreasurybondsanddebt-likedebt-backedmortgage-backedsecuritiesexpandedtocorporatebonds,whilemovingtowardthemoneymarket,creditmarketandcommercialpaper.Themarketinjectsliquiditytopreventliquiditycrisisandsystemicmarketcollapse.Inessence,theUnitedStatespassedupto2.A$2trillionfiscalstimulusplan,closeto10%ofUSGDP,ismainlyadirectsubsidyforlow-andmiddle-incomeAmericans.Itcosts$1200peradultand$500forchildren,increasesunemploymentinsurance,andestablishesapoolof$500billion.Providecommercialloanstoclosedandcutting-edgeenterprises.TheseimprovementshavefarsurpassedthemeasurestakenbytheUnitedStatesinresponsetothefinancialcrisisin2008,anditcanbeseenthattheimpactofthemodernepidemicontheUnitedStates’financeandeconomyisextremelyserious.Atthetimeoftheintroductionofthesepolicies,therewerelessthan100,000casesofnewcoronarypneumoniadiagnosedintheUnitedStates,andcurrentlythereareasmanyas160,000people.About20,000peoplewerediagnosedeachdayinthepasttwodays,andthisweekwillquicklyexceed200,000cases.Moreover,mostofthemajorepidemicinChinaoccurredinWuhan,Hubei,andtheUnitedStateshasatendencytospreadacrossthecountry.Theinflectionpointoftheepidemichasnotyetarrived.Therefore,howtomaintainthestabilityoftheeconomicandfinancialmarketsinApril,theremainingpolicyspaceoftheUnitedStateswillbeverylimited,andextrememeasuressimilartotheclosureofWuhanmaybeunavoidable.Thelatertheinflectionpointfortheepidemictobecontrolledcomes,theeconomiccostmaybe.Moreimportantly,aftertheepidemiccrisis,thepolicyspacefortheUSgovernmenttostimulateeconomicrecoveryisverylimited.Firstofall,graduallyreducecorporateincometaxandpersonalincometaxratesgraduallywhiletakingoffice.Taxcutsincreasethepressureongovernmentdebt,sothereislittleroomforincreasingtaxcuts.Overall,theleverageoftheUSgovernmentisalreadyveryhigh.BytheendofSeptember2019,theproportionofUSgovernmentdebttoGDPhadreached103.Thehistoricalhighof5%,whilethenewlylaunched2.The$2trillionfiscalstimulusplanwillincreasethisratioby10ormore.Therefore,aftertheepidemiccrisis,itisunlikelythattheUSfiscalpolicywillbefurtherloosened.Aftertheepidemiccrisis,theFedwillcontinueitsveryloosemonetarypolicy,sotheworldeconomywillenteraneraofzerointerestrates.AlthoughtheFedmayreducethescopeofmicro-easing,itwillnotchangethetoneofloosemonetarypolicyinthepost-crisisera.However,thestimuluseffectofloosemonetarypolicymaybeverylimited.After2008,theFeddidn’tstartraisinginterestratesforthefirsttimesincethefinancialcrisisuntiltheendof2015.However,asmentionedearlier,loosemonetarypolicydidnotbringasignificanteconomicrecovery,andtheinflationratehasconsistentlyexceededtheexpected2%target.Onthecontrary,loosemonetarypolicyhasraisedassetprices,whiletheUSassetpricebubbleisobvious.U.S.unilateraltradeprotectionismisaggravatedatpresent.Theshort-termdeclineoftheU.S.economywillbeverylarge.Iftheepidemiciscontrolledintime,unemploymentinmanyserviceindustriesmayalsorecoverquickly.Thegovernmentpolicyresponseisveryconfusing.Iftheepidemictriggersaneconomiccrisis,whetherthepreviouslyledUSgovernmentcanrespondpromptlyandreasonablybecomesahugequestionmark.TheUnitedStateslasted10yearsfromtheGreatDepressionof1929.Oneoftheimportantreasonsisthemistakeofeconomicpolicy.Manystudieshavefoundthattradepolicy,monetarypolicyandfiscalpolicyaremakingdirectionalerrors.Afterthecrisis,theUnitedStatesinitiallyestablishedpersonalunemploymentinsurance,depositinsurancesystems,andreversecyclemonetaryandfiscalpolicies,allofwhichviolatedthedownwardspiralofeconomicspirals.Afterthefinancialcrisisof2007-2009,thesepoliciessuccessfullyavoidedtheGreatRecessionfromhappeningagain.Beforecomingtopower,majoreconomicpoliciesintheUnitedStateswereattendedbyprofessionaleconomists.Alargenumberofwell-knowneconomistshaveservedaspresident’seconomicadviserstotheUnitedStates.Importantguidingrole.However,aftertakingofficeabsolutely,despitethecommonsenseofeconomics,heforcedtheadversityandtriggeredtradeconflictseverywhere.ItcanbeexpectedthatthepoliticalpowerofthenewcrownepidemicwillcauseadversityintheUnitedStatestobefurtherstrengthened.Atthesametime,italsoincreasedpressureontheFedanddamagedtheindependenceoftheFed.Tosomeextent,itwaspreciselythepressurethatwasreachedthatledtothenormalizationofU.S.monetarypolicyintimebeforethenewcoronaryepidemiccrisis,leadingtoalimiteddeclineininterestrates.Monetarypolicyitselfcanonlysolvetheproblemsofshort-termliquiditydepletion,andithaslimitedeffectonconsumptioncausedbytheepidemic.Itisevenmoredesperatetotrytousemonetarypolicytosolvethelong-termweaknessoftheUSafterthe2008financialcrisis.IftheUnitedStatesre-offendstheunilateraltradeprotectionpolicyduringtheGreatDepression,andatthesametimetriestousemonetarypolicyasapanaceatosolveeconomicproblems,thenthepossibilityoftheUnitedStatesenteringtheGreatDepressionwillbegreatlyincreased.Author:ShengliuGang:AssociateProfessor,DepartmentofEconomics,ChineseUniversityofHongKong,deputydirectoroftheInstituteofAsia-PacificeconomiccenterofHongKong,programdirectoroftradeanddevelopment.WangPengfei:DeputyDeanandProfessorofPekingUniversityHSBCBusinessSchool.Sauna,YeWangHouRunfangEditorChenLiproofreadingLiShihui

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[Does the orange get angry?】 _Hot gas_Fire gas

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